What changes when retirement starts three years later?

Starting plan inputs

Breakdown of the model

1. Age-62 version: the projection includes the rollover, roof expense, pension start, and every mortgage payment on their original dates.
2. Change to 65: the planner moves dated entries that would otherwise fall before the projection start and names them in an adjustment notice.
3. Still inside the timeline: the mortgage payoff age remains 67 because it is later than the new start.
4. User review is required: automatic movement prevents an input from disappearing, but cannot determine whether it already occurred or is already reflected in the new starting balance.

Projected results before correcting the age-65 inputs

The table uses a smooth deterministic path with the Balanced allocation, Lower Long-Term Return preset derived from 20-year rolling historical periods, and 2.5% inflation. Total taxes sum annual future-dollar estimates and are not an inflation-adjusted present value. Its large improvement is intentionally a warning, not a conclusion that waiting three years creates $470,000 at age 80. The age-65 version starts with the same account balances, skips three years of modeled spending, and moves pre-start cash flows into the shorter projection. A defensible comparison must replace those balances with estimated age-65 balances and explicitly model work income, contributions, spending, investment performance, and any events completed before 65.

What the uncorrected Risk Analysis shows

These 1,000-path results use the same Simulation Seed, lower-return target, and recentered variable inflation. They demonstrate how inconsistent inputs can produce a convincing but invalid improvement.

Do not use the 99.9% or 85.7% figures to choose age 65. They answer a distorted question because the starting balances and past events were not remeasured at 65. Risk Analysis measures the inputs it receives; it does not certify that two input sets form a fair comparison.

What Evelyn could learn

• Dates and account balances must use the same starting point. An age-65 balance should represent what is expected to exist at age 65, not today's unchanged balance.
• If the later balance already includes the rollover or reflects a paid roof expense, leaving that item in the future schedule double counts it.
• The adjustment notice identifies dates that crossed the projection boundary, but Evelyn must decide whether each item should move, be removed, or already be included in a balance.
• Gross work income affects taxes and the Social Security earnings test; net work income provides spendable cash. Neither is inferred merely because Start Age changes.
• More simulations cannot repair inconsistent inputs. A precise-looking success rate can still answer the wrong question.

How to recreate the study

1. Load the study and select the 67 · No Conversion row.
2. Record the age-62 results and review all dated entries.
3. Change Start Age from 62 to 65 and read the adjustment notice before editing anything else.
4. Decide whether the rollover, roof replacement, and pension actually occurred before 65; remove, retain, or revise each item accordingly.
5. Estimate account balances as of age 65 and enter gross and net work income, saving, and retirement ages where applicable.
6. Only then compare projected balances, depletion, taxes, and Risk Analysis results.

Related guides and resources

• Detailed retirement spending inputs
• How to compare retirement scenarios
• Building a retirement spending plan
• Social Security retirement planner
• IRS retirement plan resources